Top Group (601689) annual report performance forecast comment: the fourth quarter results improved significantly lightweight chassis is expected to contribute to the performance flexibility

Top Group (601689) annual report performance forecast comment: the fourth quarter results improved significantly lightweight chassis is expected to contribute to the performance flexibility

Event: The company issued a 2019 performance forecast, and the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 of 4.
.

5.1 billion?
5.

4.1 billion, down 28 each year.

18%?
40.

13%.

Investment points: The fourth quarter results are expected to improve significantly, and the trend of performance inflection points will be different: In 2019, the company is expected to realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

5.1 billion?
5.

4.1 billion, down 28 each year.

18%?
40.

13%, of which non-recurring gains and losses of 35 million yuan, compared with 7,513 in the same period last year.

The proportion of 810,000 yuan has a decrease in deviation. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is 4.

1.6 billion?
5.

0.6 billion yuan, down 25 per year.

39%?
38.

66%, the company’s performance growth rate is mainly due to the downturn in the domestic passenger car industry, leading to pressure on sales of mainstream auto manufacturers.

In general, the quarterly performance is expected to improve further in the fourth quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the fourth quarter is expected to be 1.

1.4 billion?
2.

4.0 billion, an annual increase of -16.

6%?
49.

5%, the decline was significantly narrowed or even tens of positive, taking the median of 1.

58 trillion is increasing by 16 per year.

45%, compared with the decline in the first three quarters of performance growth, the performance inflection point trend has increased significantly.

The company’s fourth-quarter performance growth has improved significantly, and is essentially an important customer Geely, GM, Ford and other sales volume improved in the fourth quarter, especially Geely’s fourth-quarter sales of 40.

30,000 vehicles, an increase of 10 in ten years.

8%, and the addition of Tesla’s domestic Model 3 orders is expected to contribute part of the performance increase. In general, the company will fully benefit from the weak recovery of the traditional passenger car industry and the high sales growth of new energy customers such as Tesla and Weilai, Performance is expected to continue to pick up.

The impairment of goodwill accrues low performance, and depreciation and amortization affect the expected shift: the company acquired Zhejiang Tuowei in 2017, and Sichuan Goodwill formed a goodwill2.

$ 7.9 billion, due to bribery companies to achieve sales revenue in 20196.

60 trillion down 11.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 0.
4.5 billion, down 35 every year.

9%, the company plans to accrue 10 million through goodwill impairment test?
40 million yuan lowered the performance in 2019. If the impact of goodwill impairment is excluded, the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will decrease by 22.

87%?
38.

80%.

In addition, as the company is in a new round of capacity expansion from 2017 to 2018, capital expansion continues to increase, and the pressure brought by fixed asset depreciation stalls continues to increase. 2019H1 fixed asset depreciation stalls account for a peak of about 6% of revenue.Strategic expected capital expenditures, capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 20196.

The annual average decline of US $ 1 trillion is 42%, and the pressure from subsequent depreciation and amortization is expected to change.

The mid-to-long-term lightweight chassis continues to contribute to performance flexibility, and the three major businesses collaborate to build a new chapter: automobile body and chassis are the most important areas for automobile lightweight. The company has deeply 重庆耍耍网 cultivated the field of chassis lightweight, and the industry has a bright future. From the perspective of customers, autonomousBrands and new energy customers have a strong demand for lightweight chassis. The company’s lightweight chassis can continue to contribute to the company’s performance flexibility, driven by demonstrations from Geely, Tesla, Weilai, BYD and other quality customers.

In the long run, the synergy and integration of the three major business of interior parts, chassis and automotive electronics among important customers can comprehensively increase the company’s scale.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.
48, 0.

60 and 0.

73 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 36.

7, 29.

2 and 23.

9 times, given the company’s fourth quarter performance improvement and lightening the growth space of the chassis break, given the “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: car sales are lower than expected, lightweight chassis expansion is lower than expected